When tomorrow comes: A prospective risk assessment of a future artificial general intelligence-based uncrewed combat aerial vehicle system.

There are concerns that Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) could pose an existential threat to humanity; however, as AGI does not yet exist it is difficult to prospectively identify risks and develop requisite controls. We applied the Work Domain Analysis Broken Nodes (WDA-BN) and Event Analysis of Systemic Teamwork-Broken Links (EAST-BL) methods to identify potential risks in a future 'envisioned world' AGI-based uncrewed combat aerial vehicle system. The findings suggest five main categories of risk in this context: sub-optimal performance risks, goal alignment risks, super-intelligence risks, over-control risks, and enfeeblement risks. Two of these categories, goal alignment risks and super-intelligence risks, have not previously been encountered or dealt with in conventional safety management systems. Whereas most of the identified sub-optimal performance risks can be managed through existing defence design lifecycle processes, we propose that work is required to develop controls to manage the other risks identified. These include controls on AGI developers, controls within the AGI itself, and broader sociotechnical system controls.

Identifying risk controls for future advanced brain-computer interfaces: A prospective risk assessment approach using work domain analysis.

Brain-computer interface (BCI) technologies are progressing rapidly and may eventually be implemented widely within society, yet their risks have arguably not yet been comprehensively identified, nor understood. This study analysed an anticipated invasive BCI system lifecycle to identify the individual, organisational, and societal risks associated with BCIs, and controls that could be used to mitigate or eliminate these risks. A BCI system lifecycle work domain analysis model was developed and validated with 10 subject matter experts. The model was subsequently used to undertake a systems thinking-based risk assessment approach to identify risks that could emerge when functions are either undertaken sub-optimally or not undertaken at all. Eighteen broad risk themes were identified that could negatively impact the BCI system lifecycle in a variety of unique ways, while a larger number of controls for these risks were also identified. The most concerning risks included inadequate regulation of BCI technologies and inadequate training of BCI stakeholders, such as users and clinicians. In addition to specifying a practical set of risk controls to inform BCI device design, manufacture, adoption, and utilisation, the results demonstrate the complexity involved in managing BCI risks and suggests that a system-wide coordinated response is required. Future research is required to evaluate the comprehensiveness of the identified risks and the practicality of implementing the risk controls.

Using systems thinking-based risk assessment methods to assess hazardous manual tasks: a comparison of Net-HARMS, EAST-BL, FRAM and STPA.

Formal risk assessment is a component of safety management relating to hazardous manual tasks (HMT). Systems thinking approaches are currently gaining interest for supporting safety management. Existing HMT risk assessment methods have been found to be limited in their ability to identify risks across the whole work system; however, systems thinking-based risk assessment (STBRA) methods were not designed for the HMT context and have not been tested in this area. The aim of this study was to compare the performance of four state-of-the-art STBRA methods: Net-HARMS, EAST-BL, FRAM and STPA to determine which would be most useful for identifying HMT risks. Each method was independently applied by one of four analysts to assess the risks associated with a hypothetical HMT system. The outcomes were assessed for alignment with a benchmark analysis. Using signal detection theory (SDT), overall STPA was found to be the best performing method having the highest hit rate, second lowest false alarm rate and highest Matthews Correlation Coefficient of the four methods.Practitioner summary: A comparison of four systems thinking risk assessment methods found that STPA had the highest level of agreement with the benchmark analysis and is the most suitable for practitioners to use to identify the risks associated with HMT systems.

Understanding the systemic influences on maritime pilot decision-making.

Maritime incidents occurring during pilotage are of international concern. Maritime pilots control most pilotage operations worldwide, yet despite the safety criticality of their role, research examining pilot decision-making processes during these complex and dynamic operations is scarce. This article describes the findings from two studies that utilised an integrated systems thinking framework to understand how pilots make decisions and what factors are perceived to influence their decisions. Interviews were held with 22 pilots (Study 1) and 17 maritime safety stakeholders (Study 2) in the New Zealand maritime context. The findings illustrate the challenges pilots face during pilotage and provide insights into their decision-making processes and the systemic factors that can be addressed to improve maritime safety. Given the multiple causal pathways to incidents occurring during pilotage identified by this research, it is suggested that multiple systems-wide interventions are needed, which is likely to require a long-term, strategic approach.

Using cognitive work analysis to identify competencies for human factors and ergonomics practitioners.

While several competency frameworks have been proposed for Human Factors and Ergonomics (HFE) practitioners, these are not commonly based on structured analyses. The aim of this research was to develop a sociotechnical systems model of the HFE practitioner role in Australia and identify the competencies required to fulfil the role. Study One applied the Work Domain Analysis phase of cognitive work analysis (CWA) to model the HFE practitioner role. Model refinement was undertaken with seven subject matter experts. In Study Two, the model was used to elicit the competencies (knowledge, skills, abilities, other characteristics) required for successful performance, via a survey of 28 HFE practitioners. Most competencies related to skills (i.e. communication skills) and knowledge (i.e. domain knowledge). Gaps in competencies were also identified, linked to a lack of HFE education pathways in Australia. The findings have practical utility for designing HFE practitioner roles and educational programs. Practitioner summary: Cognitive work analysis provided a structured analysis of the role of the Human Factors and Ergonomics (HFE) practitioner and to support the identification of competencies. The results suggest that HFE practitioners are generalists rather than specialists and have implications for the job design and education of HFE practitioners. Abbreviations: BCPE: board of certification in professional ergonomics; CIEHF: chartered institute of ergonomics and human factors; CWA: cognitive work analysis; HFE: human factors and ergonomics; HFESA: human factors and ergonomics society of Australia; IEA: International Ergonomics Association; KSAO: knowledge, skills, abilities and other characteristics; O*NET: occupation information network; SME: subject matter expert; SRK: skills, rules, knowledge; UK: United Kingdom; USA: United States of America; WDA: work domain analysis.

Clear and present danger? Applying ecological interface design to develop an aviation risk management interface.

Ecological Interface Design (EID) is a framework for developing dynamic interfaces that support operators to understand and take appropriate actions within highly-complex systems. This two-part study involved the development and evaluation of a novel EID-based static aviation risk management display. A within-subjects survey-based experiment employed measures of decision accuracy, situation awareness, user workload, usability, and user perceptions. Results from 23 participants showed that when compared to a risk interface utilised by a large aviation company, the EID display achieved higher usability and lower workload ratings with large effect sizes, with no differences in decision accuracy and situation awareness. The findings provide evidence that the EID framework can improve upon static traditional displays. Research contributions also include a novel model of an aviation ground operations system and an example application of EID to the development of a static display. Further research is necessary to identify the extent of the applications and benefits to static displays.

State of science: models and methods for understanding and enhancing teams and teamwork in complex sociotechnical systems.

This state of the science review brings together the disparate literature of effective strategies for enhancing and accelerating team performance. The review evaluates and synthesises models and proposes recommended avenues for future research. The two major models of the Input-Mediator-Output-Input (IMOI) framework and the Big Five dimensions of teamwork were reviewed and both will need significant development for application to future teams comprising non-human agents. Research suggests that a multi-method approach is appropriate for team measurements, such as the integration of methods from self-report, observer ratings, event-based measurement and automated recordings. Simulations are recommended as the most effective team-based training interventions. The impact of new technology and autonomous agents is discussed with respect to the changing nature of teamwork. In particular, whether existing teamwork models and measures are suitable to support the design, operation and evaluation of human-nonhuman teams of the future. Practitioner summary: This review recommends a multi-method approach to the measurement and evaluation of teamwork. Team models will need to be adapted to describe interaction with non-human agents, which is what the future is most likely to hold. The most effective team training interventions use simulation-based approaches.

State of science: evolving perspectives on 'human error'.

This paper reviews the key perspectives on human error and analyses the core theories and methods developed and applied over the last 60 years. These theories and methods have sought to improve our understanding of what human error is, and how and why it occurs, to facilitate the prediction of errors and use these insights to support safer work and societal systems. Yet, while this area of Ergonomics and Human Factors (EHF) has been influential and long-standing, the benefits of the 'human error approach' to understanding accidents and optimising system performance have been questioned. This state of science review analyses the construct of human error within EHF. It then discusses the key conceptual difficulties the construct faces in an era of systems EHF. Finally, a way forward is proposed to prompt further discussion within the EHF community. Practitioner statement This state-of-science review discusses the evolution of perspectives on human error as well as trends in the theories and methods applied to understand, prevent and mitigate error. It concludes that, although a useful contribution has been made, we must move beyond a focus on an individual error to systems failure to understand and optimise whole systems.

Human Factors and Ergonomics and the management of existential threats: A work domain analysis of a COVID-19 return from lockdown restrictions system.

Following strict "lockdown" restrictions designed to control the spread of the COVID-19 virus, many jurisdictions are now engaged in a process of easing restrictions in an attempt to stimulate economic and social activity while continuing to suppress virus transmission. This is challenging and complex, and in several regions, new outbreaks have emerged. We argue that systems Human Factors and Ergonomics methods can assist in understanding and optimizing the return from lockdown. To demonstrate, we used work domain analysis to develop an abstraction hierarchy model of a generic "return from lockdown restrictions" system. The model was assessed to identify (a) issues preventing a successful return from lockdown; and (b) leverage points that could be exploited to optimize future processes. The findings show that the aim of continuing to suppress virus transmission conflicts with the aims of returning to pre-virus economic and social activity levels. As a result, many functions act against each other, ensuring that the system cannot optimally achieve all three of its primary aims. Potential leverage points include modifying the goals and rules of the system and enhancing communications and feedback. Specifically, it is argued that moderating economic aims and modifying how social and community activities are undertaken will result in longer term suppression of the virus.

Ghost trains: Australian rail in the early stages of the global COVID-19 pandemic.

The rail industry, as with all sectors worldwide, has faced disruptions due to the global COVID-19 pandemic. This commentary considers how rail organizations in Australia have engaged within the early stages of the crisis, outlining the challenges faced and how they were addressed. Relying on our observations, and anecdotes obtained from others across the Australian rail industry, we identified a range of impacts including determining service delivery levels (and the associated running of "ghost trains"), implementing hygiene measures and social distancing, managing training and medical assessments, and changes in the behavior of passengers and members of the public (including aggression toward staff and increased instances of trespass). Within rail organizations, we saw changes to communication and control structures, new challenges related to balancing priorities (managing risk of rail accidents vs. virus transmission risk), and negative impacts on job design offset by increased informal support for frontline workers. Importantly, from the crisis, we gained new insights about culture. Finally, we provide recommendations regarding how the Human Factors and Ergonomics discipline can support safe and effective rail operations in the context of both widespread crises such as pandemics as well as the less dramatic, but ever present, shifts in the physical, social, economic, and political environments in which rail organizations operate.

Interaction-centred design: an end user evaluation of road intersection concepts developed using the cognitive work analysis design toolkit (CWA-DT).

Crashes at intersections represent an important road safety problem. Interactions between different road user types, such as between vehicles and vulnerable road users, are a particular concern. It has been suggested driver-centric road design plays a role in crashes. A multi-road user evaluation of three novel intersection designs is described. The designs were generated using the Cognitive Work Analysis Design Toolkit, underpinned by sociotechnical systems theory. The desktop evaluation involved drivers, motorcyclists, cyclists and pedestrians rating the design concepts against alignment with design goals, sociotechnical systems theory and usability, and providing feedback on the positive and negative aspects. Two concepts received more positive ratings and feedback in comparison to a concept that provided more user autonomy. The evaluation results also highlight clear differences in needs across road user groups. The design and evaluation process demonstrates how sociotechnical systems values and principles can be applied in the design of public spaces. Practitioner Summary: This study involved a participatory evaluation of novel road intersection designs, based on sociotechnical systems theory. The results identified important differences in needs and preferences across road user groups and demonstrate the value of sociotechnical systems theory and user participation in road transport design and evaluation processes. Abbreviations: CWA-DT: cognitive work analysis design toolkit; WDA: work domain analysis; SUS: system usability scale.

The perils of perfect performance; considering the effects of introducing autonomous vehicles on rates of car vs cyclist conflict.

How humans will adapt and respond to the introduction of autonomous vehicles (AVs) is uncertain. This study used an agent-based model to explore how AVs, human-operated vehicles, and cyclists might interact based on the introduction of flawlessly performing AVs. Under two separate experimental conditions, results of experiment 1 showed that, despite no conflicts occurring between cyclists and AVs, modelled conflicts among human-operated cars and cyclists increased with the introduction of AVs due to cyclists' adjusted expectations of the behaviour and capability of human-operated and autonomous cars. Similarly, when human-operated cars were replaced with AVs over time in experiment 2, cyclist conflict rates did not follow a linear reduction consistent with the replacement rate but decreased more slowly in the early stages of replacement before 50% substitution. It is concluded that, although flawlessly performing AVs might reduce total conflicts, the introduction of AVs into a transport system where humans adjust to the behaviour and risk presented by AVs could create new sources of error that offset some of AVs assumed safety benefits. Practitioner summary: Ergonomics is an applied science that studies interactions between humans and other elements of a system, including non-human agents. Agent-Based Modelling (ABM) provides an approach for exploring dynamic and emergent interactions between agents. In this article, we demonstrate ABM through an analysis of how cyclists and pedestrians might interact with Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) in future road transport systems. Abbreviations: ABM: agent-based model; AV: autonomous vehicle; ODD; overview, design concepts and details; RW: rescorla-wagner.

Who is to blame for crashes involving autonomous vehicles? Exploring blame attribution across the road transport system.

The introduction of fully autonomous vehicles is approaching. This warrants a re-consideration of road crash liability, given drivers will have diminished control. This study, underpinned by attribution theory, investigated blame attribution to different road transport system actors following crashes involving manually driven, semi-autonomous and fully autonomous vehicles. It also examined whether outcome severity alters blame ratings. 396 participants attributed blame to five actors (vehicle driver/user, pedestrian, vehicle, manufacturer, government) in vehicle-pedestrian crash scenarios. Different and unique patterns of blame were found across actors, according to the three vehicle types. In crashes involving fully autonomous vehicles, vehicle users received low blame, while vehicle manufacturers and government were highly blamed. There was no difference in the level of blame attributed between high and low severity crashes regarding vehicle type. However, the government received more blame in high severity crashes. The findings have implications for policy and legislation surrounding crash liability. Practitioner summary: Public views relating to blame and liability in transport accidents is a vital consideration for the introduction of new technologies such as autonomous vehicles. This study demonstrates how a systems ergonomics framework can assist to identify the implications of changing public opinion on blame for future road transport systems. Abbreviation: ANOVA: analysis of variance; DAT: defensive attribution theory; IV: independent variable.

Computational modelling and systems ergonomics: a system dynamics model of drink driving-related trauma prevention.

System dynamics is a computational modelling method that is used to understand the dynamic interactions influencing behaviour in complex systems. In this article we argue that the method provides a useful tool for ergonomists wishing to model the behaviour of complex systems. We present a system dynamics model that simulates the behaviour of a drink driving-related trauma system and explore the potential impact of different road safety policy interventions. The model was simulated over thirty-year periods with different policy interventions. The findings suggest that the greatest reduction in drink driving-related trauma can be achieved by policies that integrate standard road safety interventions (e.g. education and enforcement) with interventions designed to address the societal issue of alcohol misuse and addiction. In closing we discuss the potential use of system dynamics modelling in future ergonomics applications and outline its strengths and weaknesses in relation to existing systems ergonomics methods. Practitioner Summary: The outputs of systems ergonomics methods are typically static and cannot simulate behaviour over time. We propose system dynamics as a useful approach for modelling the behaviour of complex systems. Applied to drink driving-related road trauma, the method was able to dynamically model the potential impacts of different policy interventions.

Defining the attributes for specific playing positions in football match-play: A complex systems approach.

INTRODUCTION: Talent identification and development programmes that retain and develop athletes are integral to the sporting success of National Governing Bodies in football. Currently, player attributes are studied in isolation without considering the complexity of interacting components of football performance. The current study applied a systems analysis framework to describe, in a structured and systematic way, the attributes for specific playing positions in football match-play. Methods: Eight high-level football coaches were interviewed. Models of the interacting attributes were developed for each position using Work Domain Analysis (WDA). Results: Six WDA models detail the attributes associated with each playing position. The models identified purposes of playing positions (restrict opposition actions, organise and coordinate, building up of offence, goal scoring and stretch opposition), performance-related measures and the functions required to achieve the playing position purposes (game play, psychological functions, time and space and player actions). Critically, the relationships between the purposes, measures, functions, processes, and objects are described in the models. DISCUSSION: The WDA models describe the interacting attributes of different playing positions in football match-play. The findings demonstrate football performance is complex, consisting of multiple interacting and dynamic components. Implications to support coaches in talent identification and development are discussed.

A systems thinking perspective on the barriers to treatment access for people with eating disorders.

Treatment access remains low for people with eating disorders. In addressing the complexity inherent in this challenge, this article introduces systems thinking and argues that it could provide new insights. Systems thinking views behavior as an emergent property of a system and considers the relationships between technical, organizational, and social components. Several methods used in safety science incorporate this thinking. For example, AcciMap draws focus to the influence of decisions and actions made across hierarchical levels of a system, including those by government, regulatory bodies, management, services, and individuals. By examining the findings of the existing literature on barriers to eating disorder treatment access according to these levels, it is evident that most identified barriers relate to individuals and that further research is needed to consider the influence of high-level stakeholders. Research using systems thinking should consider the causal networks of influence from government, regulatory, and organizational decisions and actions through to outcomes for clinicians and individuals. The understanding of how barriers operate within specific healthcare systems also warrants investigation. Systems thinking is yet to be formally applied in the area of eating disorders and thus represents an opportunity to inform the development and implementation of more effective, system wide interventions.

A Systems Approach to Performance Analysis in Women's Netball: Using Work Domain Analysis to Model Elite Netball Performance.

Netball is a newly professional women's sport, as such there has been little research conducted investigating performance analysis (PA) in elite netball. The aim of this study was to develop a model of the elite netball performance system to identify the complex relationships among key performance indicators. Eleven elite subject matter experts (SMEs) participated in workshops to produce a systems model of the netball match performance. The model was developed using the work domain analysis (WDA) method. A model of the netball match performance system was produced showing the interrelated objects, processes, functions, values, and purposes involved in elite level netball matches. The model identified the components of elite level netball performance and the interactions and relationships between them. The output of this research has identified novel PA measures including passing and possession measures, measures of cognitive performance, and measures related to physical activity. Netball is a complex sport, involving multiple dynamic and interrelated components. Consequently, there is an opportunity to develop holistic PA measures that focus on interacting components, as opposed to components in isolation.

Applying systems ergonomics methods in sport: A systematic review.

INTRODUCTION: As sports systems become increasingly more complex, competitive, and technology-centric, there is a greater need for systems ergonomics methods to consider the performance, health, and safety of athletes in context with the wider settings in which they operate. Therefore, the purpose of this systematic review was to identify and critically evaluate studies which have applied a systems ergonomics research approach in the context of sports performance and injury management. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Five databases (PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, Web of Science, and SPORTDiscus) were searched for the dates 01 January 1990 to 01 August 2017, inclusive, for original peer-reviewed journal articles and conference papers. Reported analyses were underpinned by a recognised systems ergonomics method, and study aims were related to the optimisation of sports performance (e.g. communication, playing style, technique, tactics, or equipment), and/or the management of sports injury (i.e. identification, prevention, or treatment). RESULTS: A total of seven articles were identified. Two articles were focussed on understanding and optimising sports performance, whereas five examined sports injury management. The methods used were the Event Analysis of Systemic Teamwork, Cognitive Work Analysis (the Work Domain Analysis Abstraction Hierarchy), Rasmussen's Risk Management Framework, and the Systems Theoretic Accident Model and Processes method. The individual sport application was distance running, whereas the team sports contexts examined were cycling, football, Australian Football League, and rugby union. CONCLUSIONS: The included systems ergonomics applications were highly flexible, covering both amateur and elite sports contexts. The studies were rated as valuable, providing descriptions of injury controls and causation, the factors influencing injury management, the allocation of responsibilities for injury prevention, as well as the factors and their interactions underpinning sports performance. Implications and future directions for research are described.